U.S. gasoline prices to rise after Iran strike impact

U.S. gasoline prices forecast to jump after attack on Iran

U.S. gasoline prices are poised to climb above $3 a gallon for the first time in more than three months, analysts say, as the conflict between the United States and Iran interrupts global crude oil flows and boosts energy benchmarks.

The escalation followed U.S. and Israeli air strikes on Iran that killed the country’s Supreme Leader and triggered Tehran to close navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of the world’s seaborne oil shipments.

Market reaction and oil benchmarks

Global oil markets reacted swiftly. Brent crude, the global benchmark, jumped roughly 10%, settling around $80 a barrel, and some analysts predict prices could climb toward $100 a barrel if the disruptions persist.

“Oil will move first. Gasoline will follow but gradually,” said Patrick De Haan, an analyst at retail price tracker GasBuddy. Nationwide pump prices, which recently dipped as low as $2.85 a gallon, could spike as crude benchmarks rise and seasonal summer fuel blends begin to roll out.

Strait of Hormuz disruption

The Strait of Hormuz links key Middle Eastern exporters with global markets. Its effective closure has led major shipping companies to avoid the region, with at least three tankers reportedly damaged.

Analysts note that even if alternative supply routes partially compensate, the loss of a major transit point for crude and liquefied natural gas (LNG) adds premiums to energy prices worldwide.

Political and economic implications

Higher gasoline prices pose political challenges for U.S. leaders, especially ahead of the November midterm elections, where inflation and cost of living remain central voter concerns.

The White House may consider tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to mitigate price spikes the same tool used historically to offset major crude shocks but such moves carry political and economic tradeoffs.

Beyond the U.S., global markets are watching closely. Disruption in the Persian Gulf could fuel broader inflation, influencing heating and transport costs in Europe and Asia, and reshape energy strategies for import-dependent countries.