Citigroup Cuts Bitcoin Price Forecast to $112,000

Wall Street is recalibrating. Citigroup has cut its 12-month Bitcoin price forecast to $112,000, down from $143,000. The reason is straightforward: Washington is moving too slowly.

The bank cited slow U.S. legislative progress that narrows the window for regulatory catalysts expected to boost ETF-driven demand and broader institutional adoption.

This is a significant downgrade. It signals that regulatory optimism, which drove much of Bitcoin's rally in late 2025, is now fading fast.

What Citigroup Changed and Win

The Wall Street brokerage lowered its 12-month Bitcoin price forecast

to $112,000 from $143,000 and its Ethereum estimate to $3,175 from $4,304.

The downgrade marks a notable shift from Citi's December 2025 outlook, when the bank had set its base-case Bitcoin target at $143,000, a bull case of $189,000, and a bear case of $78,500.

Three months later, the assumptions behind those numbers have broken down.

The Legislation Bottleneck

The core problem is the U.S. Senate. Progress on U.S. crypto market-structure legislation has stalled in the Senate, with the CLARITY Act's chances of passage declining over disagreements on stablecoin rules and a shrinking window for approval in 2026.

Polymarket data shows the odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 dropped to 60%, reflecting mixed sentiment among prediction market traders on whether the bill becomes law this year.

Other lawmakers have called for the bill to include tighter anti-money laundering rules, further complicating any path to quick passage.

Citi's Expert View

Citi strategist Alex Saunders was direct in his assessment. "Regulatory catalysts will drive further adoption and flows but the window of opportunity for U.S. legislation this year is narrowing," Saunders said in a note on Monday.

Citi added that Bitcoin is likely to range-trade as markets wait for legislative news flow, with $70,000 flagged as an important support level representing the pre-U.S. election price.

That range-trading outlook suggests little near-term upside unless Congress moves decisively.

Ethereum Takes a Harder Hit

Bitcoin was not the only casualty in Citi's revised outlook. Ethereum took a harder hit. The bank lowered its target by over 26%, dropping it to $3,175. Analysts noted that Ethereum has struggled to keep up with Bitcoin's momentum this year.

Citigroup added that Ethereum will be particularly sensitive to user activity metrics, which have recently been weak, though stablecoin and tokenization trends may boost interest going forward

Bull Case, Bear Case: The Full Range

Citi did not abandon all optimism. Under a recessionary macro backdrop, Bitcoin could drop as low as $58,000 and Ether to $1,198. On the other end, a bull case driven by stronger end-investor demand puts Bitcoin as high as $165,000 and Ether at $4,488.

The bank's bear case scenario is especially cautious. If a recession hits or the Iran conflict worsens energy prices, Bitcoin could fall back toward the $58,000 range.

The spread between outcomes is wide. That alone reflects how uncertain the current environment is.

ETF Flows: Steady but Not ExplosiveCiti still expects about $15 billion to flow into Bitcoin ETFs over the next year, but warns that these flows will only happen if the news stays positive.

ETF inflows have been uneven, the CLARITY Act remains in limbo, and the macro picture has deteriorated. With midterm politics now entering the equation and the legislative calendar tightening by the week, Citi's revised targets reflect a market that may have to wait longer than expected for the institutional catalysts it has been pricing in.

Institutional Divergence: BlackRock vs. Citi

Not everyone is pulling back. While Citi worries about regulatory timelines, the largest asset managers are focused on long-term supply constraints and treating current prices as an accumulation zone. Large Bitcoin wallets have resumed accumulation according to Santiment, absorbing sell pressure from short-term holders.

That divergence is telling. Banks are revising forecasts down. Major asset managers are still buying.

Why This Forecast Cut Matters

Citigroup is not a fringe analyst. It is one of the largest financial institutions in the world. When it cuts a crypto forecast by $31,000, markets pay attention.

These changes reflect a shift in mood at the bank, as analysts realize that the crypto-friendly laws many expected to pass quickly are now facing significant delays. The Senate Banking Committee has repeatedly delayed votes on key bills. These delays are cooling down the regulatory hype that helped push Bitcoin to its October highs of $126,000.

The market had priced in a best-case legislative scenario. That scenario is no longer the base case.

What Happens Next

President Trump has publicly criticized banks for stalling the crypto bill, but progress has stalled amid the Trump administration's priority to pass the SAVE America Act before the November 2026 midterm elections. Democrats winning the midterms would further delay crypto bills, dragging Bitcoin and Ethereum prices lower.

Adding to the pressure is the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on March 18. Citigroup expects the Fed to keep interest rates steady, which usually makes it harder for risky assets like crypto to rally. The bank's analysts noted that "higher for longer" interest rates are making investors more selective about where they put their money.

The next few months are pivotal. Any Senate movement on the CLARITY Act could quickly change the picture.

FAQ

Q1: Why did Citigroup cut its Bitcoin price forecast? Citigroup lowered its Bitcoin price forecast because U.S. crypto legislation has stalled in the Senate. The CLARITY Act faces delays over disagreements on stablecoin rules, reducing the regulatory catalysts the bank had counted on to drive institutional demand.

Q2: What is Citigroup's new Bitcoin price target? Citigroup's updated 12-month base-case Bitcoin price target is $112,000, revised down from $143,000.

Q3: What is Citi's bear case for Bitcoin? In a recessionary scenario, Citi sees Bitcoin potentially falling to $58,000 and Ethereum dropping to $1,198.

Q4: How does the CLARITY Act affect Bitcoin prices? The CLARITY Act would create a clear regulatory framework for crypto assets. Its passage is expected to unlock broader institutional participation and ETF-driven demand. Delays in the bill remove a key price catalyst.

Q5: Is Ethereum more at risk than Bitcoin right now? According to Citi, yes. Ethereum's forecast was cut by over 26% and the bank flagged weak user activity metrics as an additional concern beyond just legislative delays.

Q6: What is Citi's Bitcoin bull case? If end-investor demand strengthens and legislative clarity emerges, Citi's bull case puts Bitcoin at $165,000 and Ethereum at $4,488 over the next 12 months.

The Road Ahead: Patience Over Momentum

The Citigroup forecast revision is not a call to panic. It is a recalibration of timing.

Bitcoin's long-term institutional thesis remains intact. ETF infrastructure is in place. Major asset managers continue to accumulate. The demand foundation has not disappeared.

What has changed is the timeline. Regulatory tailwinds that were expected in Q1 have been pushed out. The legislative window is narrowing. And with the Federal Reserve holding rates steady and midterm politics complicating any bipartisan crypto deal, the market may need more patience than it originally budgeted for.

For long-term investors, $70,000 to $112,000 is still a meaningful range. For traders betting on a fast legislative catalyst, the calculus has shifted. Washington, not Wall Street, now holds the key to Bitcoin's next major move.